Wildfire Smoke Forecast 6/27/2021

There are again some lingering clouds over the area this morning, however, today is forecast to be drier. Showers and thunderstorms are unlikely to form in the area this afternoon. Winds will be breezy out of the northeast today with winds expected to be around 10-15 mph gusting 25 mph. With gusty winds and dry conditions, the biggest threat will be new starts to the fire.

As long as there aren’t any significant new starts to the Backbone fire, smoke impacts should be minimal. There will continue to be potential light to moderate impacts to the nearby communities, but most of the smoke will be associated with the Rafael wildfire. Communities in the Verde Valley and generally southwest of the Rafael fire are expected to see the heavier smoke impacts.

Winds will continue to be breezy out of the northeast through tomorrow morning before becoming more light and variable tomorrow afternoon. Thunderstorm chances will return to the area tomorrow afternoon which could cause gusty winds. 

Wyrick/West Chev Fire Update 6/26/2021

Firefighters increase containment as hot and dry weather continues
Daily Update 6/26/2021
Wyrick
Start Date: Saturday, June 19, 2021
Acres: Wyrick: 7,592 acres
Cause: Lightning
Location: 2 miles north of Mogollon HS, Heber, AZ
Containment: 42%
Fuels: Pinyon-Juniper, Timber and grass
Total Personnel: 350
West Chev
Start Date: Saturday, June 19, 2021
Acres: 1,036 acres
Cause: Lightning
Location: 12.5 miles northwest of Heber, AZ
West Chev: 28%
Fuels: Timber and grass

Announcement: Forest Road 504 is open to residents and property owners. Drivers are asked to drive slowly and remain alert for increased fire-related traffic on this route.


Overview: Imagery from an IR (infrared) flight overnight shows isolated pockets of heat on the two fires, and some increase in the size of the West Chev Fire. Fire behavior yesterday was moderate.
Heat sources remain along portions of the perimeters of both fires but continue to decline. Drought stressed trees and brush can accelerate the return of active fire behavior quickly. Today, firefighters will aggressively attack any flare-ups close to containment lines. Helicopters and air tankers are available to support ground resources.


Fire Update:
Wyrick: On Friday, hand crews and engines monitored, patrolled and improved containment lines around the fire perimeter, and mopped-up hotspots near containment lines. This work will continue today with firefighters mopping up farther into the fire where possible.


West Chev: Yesterday, firefighters constructed more fireline and conducted firing operations to remove fuel between the fire and containment lines. The West Chev Fire has been burning along the ground through pine needles, and firefighters fired out to 169B to secure the northwest flank. Today’s focus will be looking for opportunities to connect fireline across Circle Bar Draw, strengthen completed containment lines, and mop up hot spots that are close to fire’s edge.


Weather: Weather conditions will be warm and dry again today, with increased atmospheric instability and a greater chance of isolated afternoon thunderstorms and rain, which could lead to pushing embers in multiple directions. Morning winds are expected to be from the west and northwest. This afternoon they will be from the north. Today’s maximum temperature will be in the low 80s, with relative humidity ranging from 17 to 19%.


Ready, Set, Go: There have been no changes to yesterday’s direction.
Areas in SET:
• Antelope Valley
• Despain Ranch
• Heber-and Overgaard
• Chevelon Retreat
• Areas north of State Route 260 and northwest of State Route 277
Residents are asked to remain alert and keep apprised of current fire conditions.
Please visit Navajo County Emergency Management for additional information about the Ready, Set, Go program and how to sign up for alerts.


Closures: A complete closure of the Apache-Sitgreaves National Forests remains in effect. Additional details can be found at Apache-Sitgreaves National Forests – News & Events (usda.gov). Arizona State Trust Lands in all 15 counties are closed for recreational use. For current information on state routes, please continue to watch Arizona Department of Transportation’s AZ511.gov website.


Smoke: Localized smoke impacts may exist in communities east of the fire if fire activity picks up, mainly in the afternoon. Expect smoke production from the east side of Wyrick this afternoon once conditions dry out, especially southern facing slopes in the fire perimeters. While not a lot of smoke is expected from both fires today, this weekend is trending drier and hotter, so expect some smoke production. A predominant southwest wind today should transport any generated smoke to the northeast. If fire activity increases, expect smoke impacts to Holbert, Snowflake, Concho, St. Johns, and Winslow. Overnight drainage winds may push smoke into Forest Lakes. The area may see influence from the Backbone and Rafael fires if winds shift as predicted, from the north. The Daily Smoke Outlook can be found by visiting: https://fires.airfire.org/outlooks/EasternArizona


Values: Firefighter and public safety are the highest priorities on these fires. Additional values at risk include properties and infrastructure, as well as power and transmission lines, communication towers, campgrounds, critical range infrastructure, and cultural and natural resources.


More Information:
Inciweb:
• West Chev: West Chev Information – InciWeb the Incident Information System (nwcg.gov)
• Wyrick: Wyrick Fire Information – InciWeb the Incident Information System (nwcg.gov)
Wyrick-West Chev Fire Information: (20+) Wyrick-West Chev Fire Information | Facebook
Apache-Sitgreaves National Forests: Apache-Sitgreaves National Forests – Home (usda.gov)
Eastern Arizona Current Outlook: Smoke Forecast Outlooks (airfire.org)
Highway Closures: https://az511.gov/
Navajo County Emergency Management: https://www.navajocountyaz.gov/…/Ready-Navajo-County…
Navajo County Emergency Management Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/NavajoCountyEM/
Navajo County Sheriff’s Office: https://www.facebook.com/NCSO.AZ/posts/4060988313951038
Fire Restrictions in Arizona: WildlandFire.AZ.gov/fire-restrictions

Wildfire Smoke Forecast 6/26/2021

There is some lingering cloud cover this morning from some isolated showers in the region yesterday afternoon. There will again be a chance for some isolated showers and thunderstorms in the area this afternoon. Wind are forecast to be light and generally out of the north. However, if thunderstorms do develop nearby we can see more erratic and gusty winds.

Smoke today is forecast to move towards the southeast. Areas southeast of the fire such as Pine, Strawberry, and Payson will likely see mostly light impacts, but moderate impacts are still possible at times. Camp Verde will likely see moderate impacts, but that will be more associated with the Rafael Fire.

Tomorrow, the position of the ridge to the northwest will shift winds a little more out of the northeast. We are also expecting sunnier skies with less of a chance of any thunderstorms in the area. This will likely allow smoke to lift more than we’ve been seeing. Overall though, smoke impact to surrounding areas likely won’t change a whole lot. We still expect mostly light impacts with potential for some occasional moderate impacts.